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Despite the volatility, the major indices closed higher after commentary from President Trump signaled optimism about striking a trade deal. The VIX (the market’s fear gauge) dropped sharply on Friday from a high of 29.
Precious metals continued their insane melt-up but took a breather on Friday, while Crude Oil dropped below $60 a barrel. Finally, AI infrastructure deals continued to accelerate, driven by OpenAI and other tech giants, shaking off bubble concerns.

No notable releases due to ongoing US Govt shutdown : US Retail Sales, Producer Price Index (PPI) and Housing Starts, among others, were due to be released this week.

The Fear & Greed Index, developed by CNN, measures sentiment in the US stock market, ranging from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed). It is based on the idea that excessive fear pushes prices below fair value, while excessive greed drives them too high.

The index draws from seven distinct market-based indicators, all sourced from US financial data providers like the NYSE and CBOE. Each indicator is given an equal weighting of 14.3%.

The Index is used by investors as a tool to gauge sentiment extremes and identify potential turning points. Extreme fear often coincides with market troughs, while extreme greed coincides with market tops and an imminent pull-back or correction.

However, the index should not be considered in isolation as it lags rapid market shifts, oversimplifies weighting, and focuses narrowly on US equities, requiring use with fundamentals and other technical indicators. For example, today, the index reads 27 (fear), even as the S&P 500 sits just ~1.5% below record highs.

Next week will be dominated by updates on the government shutdown, trade commentary, and ongoing talks between the US and China, as we officially enter the thick of earnings season. The S&P and Dow sit just below their 21-day moving averages.
Mixed earnings and market jitters could push indices to retest their 50-day averages, while robust earnings and positive trade catalysts could send us back to All-Time Highs. Oil prices, precious metals, and bond yields will also be on watch.

(subject to Govt shutdown ending)

Lennar Corp is one of the largest homebuilders in the US, operating across 26 states. It is vertically integrated, offering single-family homes across multiple price points, mortgage financing, and title services. The company has accelerated its long-standing strategic goal of becoming an "asset-light, land-light" manufacturer of homes. This pivot involved the spin-off of a significant portion of its land holdings into a separate entity (Millrose Properties in Feb 2025) to reduce financial risk and focus entirely on home manufacturing.

Although Lennar’s annual revenue has been growing at a tepid 9% CAGR over 3 years due to affordability constraints, its business is backed by one of the sector's strongest balance sheets, with a current ratio of 4.51 and debt-to-capital ratio well below 15%. The stock trades at an attractive 12.4 P/E. Elevated mortgage rates in recent years have forced the company to use pricing incentives and compress margins to sell inventory. This pressure should ease as mortgage rates are projected to fall in 2026, which is expected to boost sales as more buyers enter a tight housing market.

Homebuilder stocks, including Lennar, received a shot in the arm in August from the prospect of falling interest rates, after struggling through a downward trend for most of 2025. This brief rally pushed Lennar above its 120-day and 200-day moving averages, though it has since corrected back and now sits just above that support. Prospects of rates lowering further, and a technical shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, could see the stock retest its key resistance level of $144.

Nu Holdings is a Brazilian digital banking giant revolutionizing finance across Latin America. It provides low-cost, mobile-first banking services through a simple, user-friendly app. Founded in 2013, the company now serves over 120 million customers across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, making it one of the largest fintechs globally. By eliminating traditional banking inefficiencies and fees, Nu has become a financial gateway for millions of underbanked Latin Americans. It plans to enter the US market in the near future.

Nu’s strength lies in its technology-first, low-cost business model and powerful brand trust. With one of the most downloaded banking apps in the world, it uses real-time data and machine learning to underwrite loans, manage risk, and personalize products far faster than legacy banks. Its operating cost per customer is just a fraction of traditional institutions like Itaú or Bradesco. The company’s viral marketing, seamless UX, and community-based customer service have created extraordinary loyalty.

Nu is showing a rare blend of hypergrowth and profitability. In Q2 2025, it reported $3.7B in revenue (up 29% YoY) and net income of $637M, marking its sixth consecutive profitable quarter. Customer deposits surpassed $36B, while the loan book reached $27B, driven by strong adoption of personal loans and SME credit. Return on Equity hit 28%, well above most global neobanks. Its capital-light model allows high scalability, and with a cost-to-income ratio near 30%, Nu stands among the most efficient financial platforms worldwide.

Nu’s rapid expansion exposes it to macroeconomic volatility in Latin America, where inflation, regulation, and currency swings can quickly affect consumer credit quality. Its growing loan portfolio increases exposure to defaults if unemployment rises. Additionally, competitors like Mercado Pago and PicPay are expanding aggressively into digital banking, while traditional banks are modernizing faster. As Nu enters new markets, balancing growth with responsible lending and maintaining asset quality will be key to sustaining its valuation.

Ali is a full-time equity trader and investor based in Dubai, and the founder of First Mile Investing. He left his corporate career in 2024 to pursue his passion for the markets. He founded First Mile Investing to help beginners take their first confident steps into investing, with the goal of making the process less intimidating, more accessible, and empowering for everyone.