Welcome to Markets Weekly! From blockbuster AI deals to a wave of IPOs and key economic data, markets had plenty to digest. Here’s everything you need to know, and more.

🧑🏻‍💼 Jobs revised down ~1 million

🍎 iPhone Air fails to lift Apple

🧙🏻 Oracle surges on cloud backlog

🛒 Consumer inflation stays sticky

🪵 Producer inflation drops

💶 ECB holds rates unchanged

Read on below.

📈 Last Week’s Recap

The major indexes, gold, and bitcoin all continued their march higher last week, even as cracks appeared under the surface from a weakening labor market, sticky inflation, and rising investor pessimism.

Index

Price
(USD)

MTD

YTD

S&P500

6,584.3

1.92%

11.95%

Dow 30

45,834.2

0.64%

7.73%

Nasdaq 100

24,092.2

1.86%

13.66%

BTC / USD

115,791

6.93%

23.96%

Gold (GLD)

335.42

5.45%

38.53%

USD (DXY)

97.55

-0.14%

-10.02%

Key Takeaways

  • US job data revised down 911K by Labor Dept. : Largest revision ever, with big cuts in leisure, trade, and business services

  • Apple ends week down 2.4% on iPhone 17 launch : Lukewarm response drove the usual post-release dip, though shares often rebound in following weeks

  • US Tariff revenue hits record $30B : Sixth straight monthly rise since April, putting 2025 on pace for $300B tariff revenue

  • US PPI inflation falls to 2.6% in Aug : Below 3.3% forecast, with core PPI at 2.8% vs 3.5%

    PPI : Producer Price Index tracks wholesale prices businesses pay. Core PPI excludes food & energy for a cleaner view of underlying inflation

  • US CPI inflation ticks higher at 2.9% in Aug : Matched forecast, and slightly above July’s 2.7%. Core CPI held at 3.1%, also in line with expectations.

    CPI : Consumer Price Index tracks prices households pay for a basket of goods and services. Core CPI excludes food & energy

  • IPO wave continues : Klarna (fintech), Figure (blockchain), Gemini (crypto) and Via Transportation (mobility tech) all debuted last week

  • Nebius signs Microsoft $17B AI infra deal : Microsoft turned to Nebius to fill capacity shortages in its own cloud business. Nebius ended the week up 38%

  • US 10Y yield drops to 4.06% : Lowest since April, which will ease borrowing costs in the US and USD pegged markets (like the UAE)

  • UK GDP flat in July : Growth stalled after June’s +0.4%, as services and construction gains were offset by a 0.9% drop in production, weakening the pound as a result

Oracle Earnings Recap

Highlights
  • Last quarter results : Reported revenue of $14.9B and EPS of $1.47, both slightly under analyst esimates

  • Backlog explosion : Despite the miss, Oracle stunned markets with an order backlog of $455B (multi-year contracts), driven largely by a $300B deal with OpenAI, possibly the largest AI cloud deal ever!

  • Reaction : Oracle surged +36% in a single day, its largest daily gain since 1992

What It Signals
  • AI & cloud infra demand is still accelerating : Other infra players like Nebius, CoreWeave, Arista Networks, NVIDIA & AMD rallied as well

  • Inference shift : Focus is moving from training to inference, where AI models are actually deployed and monetized
    Inference : When AI models are deployed in the cloud to generate answers or predictions in real time. Training builds the model, and inference is where it is actively applied

  • Neutral provider advantage : Unlike Amazon or Microsoft, Oracle doesn’t develop its own AI models, so it can serve companies like OpenAI or Meta without competing against them

What’s Next (Author’s Note)

In my view, Oracle’s big move likely priced in a lot of its near-term upside. The more attractive opportunities may lie with other AI infra names trading at more reasonable valuations. I am especially focused on the adoption layer, where AI will actually be embedded into enterprise and real-world workflows.

Other Notable Earnings

Name
(Ticker)

Qtr Rev

Qtr EPS

YTD

Sailpoint (SAIL)

$264M
(Beat)

-$0.02
(Beat)

-2%

Synopsys (SNPS)

$1.74B
(Miss)

$3.39
(Miss)

-12%

Rubrik (RBRK)

$310M
(Beat)

-$0.03
(Beat)

14%

Kroger (KR)

$33.9B
(Miss)

$1.04
(Beat)

12%

Adobe (ADBE)

$5.99B
(Beat)

$5.31
(Beat)

-21%

💡Weekly Spotlight

Data Center Building Blocks

As seen in Oracle’s latest earnings, demand for AI and cloud infrastructure is booming. This surge is fueling a massive buildout of data centers worldwide. The global market is projected to grow from about $350B today to $650B by 2030.

Here are the key components that go into building them, and the companies leading the way:

🔨 Construction

Physical shells designed to house the entire operation. Designed for resilience, scalability and security.

DPR Construction, Jacobs Solutions (J)

⚡️Power

Power grid connections, backup generators, and UPS systems. Data centers consume massive electricity, with demand expected to more than double by 2030, requiring a future mix of traditional, renewable and nuclear energy options.

Eaton (ETN), NRG Energy (NRG), Schneider Electric (SU)

Compute

The processing core containing racks of servers with CPUs, GPUs, and accelerators. NVIDIA and AMD dominate AI compute, while Broadcom’s networking and custom silicon help hyperscalers link chips into unified high-performance systems.

System Vendors : Dell (DELL), HP Ent (HPE)

🔗 Networking

Switches, routers, fiber optics, and custom silicon that keep data flowing seamlessly inside and outside centers.

Cisco (CSCO), Arista Networks (ANET)

❄️ Cooling

Advanced systems (air, liquid, immersion) that control immense heat loads generated from thousands of servers, boosting efficiency.

🏢 Vertiv (VRT), Johnson Controls (JCI)

🗓️ The Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be front and center next week. Traders see a 92% chance of a 25 basis point cut, which would lower the federal funds rate to a 4.00-4.25% range. Also in focus will be the Fed’s updated projections and its dot plot, which shows how officials expect interest rates to evolve. Beyond monetary policy, economic data, earnings, and geopolitics will be in focus.

Fed Funds Rate : The benchmark US interest rate that influences borrowing costs on mortgages, credit cards, and business loans.

  • US Retail Sales : Tues, 16-Sep

  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decision : On Wed, 17-Sep, followed by Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference

  • FedEx & Lennar earnings : Thurs, 18-Sep, AMC

  • UK-US Tech Deal : During Trump’s UK visit, Nvidia, OpenAI, CoreWeave, and BlackRock are expected to announce major UK data center investments

  • Ongoing US-China tariff battle : US and EU may raise tariff pressure on China tied to the Russia-Ukraine war

  • Russia-Ukraine escalation : Russian drones recently breached Polish airspace, escalation risks will be on watch

Upcoming Economic Data Releases

Report

Period

Date

Median Forecast

US Retail Sales

Aug

16-Sep

0.3%

Housing Starts

Aug

17-Sep

1.37M

Building Permits

Aug

17-Sep

1.37M

FOMC Rate Decision

Current

17-Sep

-0.25%

Upcoming Notable Earnings

Name
(Ticker)

Date

EPS Est

YTD

General Mills (GIS)

17-Sep

$0.81

-22%

Bullish (BLSH)

17-Sep

-$0.06

-24%

Fedex (FDX)

18-Sep

$3.65

-19%

Lennar (LEN)

18-Sep

$2.12

5%

🎯 This Week’s Pick

Qualcomm

QCOM $161.83 (0.20%)
Profile

Qualcomm is a leading semiconductor and wireless technology company, best known for its Snapdragon processors and 5G modems in smartphones. It also earns high-margin licensing revenue from its patent portfolio, and is expanding into automotive, IoT, and edge computing, positioning itself as a diversified player in connectivity and AI.

Fundamental Overview

Unlike NVIDIA and Broadcom, which have surged on AI compute demand, Qualcomm remains tied to the cyclical smartphone market. As a result, it trades at a forward P/E of ~14, well below the sector average of ~35–40. With ongoing diversification into IoT and edge computing, and AI capabilities being embedded into Snapdragon platforms, Qualcomm could offer investors a more attractive entry point into semis at a reasonable valuation.

Technical Overview

Qualcomm has been consolidating just below a key resistance level of 162.50 for nearly four months. During this time, it has climbed above its 21, 50 and 200 day moving averages, signaling rising momentum. A breakout above resistance could set the stock on a medium-term uptrend.

🚀 Bonus Pick - Future Play

Confluent

CFLT $19.24 (-1.08%)
Profile

Confluent is a leading real-time data streaming company. It helps businesses process large amounts of real-time data, instead of storing it first and processing it later (batch processing). For example, a ride-sharing app uses Confluent to process real-time location data, traffic updates, and rider information to match a passenger with the closest driver in seconds.

Competitive Advantage

Founded by the creators of Apache Kafka, Confluent’s platform connects easily to many systems, works across cloud or on-prem setups, and includes strong data controls, creating high switching costs for customers. New AI tools like Flink make it even more valuable for real-time analytics.

Fundamental Overview

In its most recent earnings, Confluent reported 21% YoY subscription growth and 28% cloud growth, but revenue missed expectations and guidance was cautious, leading to a nearly 30% stock drop. Still, Flink’s ARR tripled, Confluent Platform revenue grew 12%, and the company holds $1.9B in cash with positive free cash flow.

Risks & Considerations

Cloud revenue is slowing due to spending cut-backs certain from customers, and competition from the likes of Snowflake and Redpanda. However, Confluent is managing this by expanding AI-driven services like Flink and strengthening hybrid offerings. On its balance sheet, Confluent holds ~$1.9B in cash but also carries ~$1.1B in convertible debt, creating dilution risk if converted.

✒️ About The Author

Ali Husain

Ali is a full-time equity trader and investor based in Dubai, and the founder of First Mile Investing. He left his corporate career in 2024 to pursue his passion for the markets. He founded First Mile Investing to help beginners take their first confident steps into investing, with the goal of making the process less intimidating, more accessible, and empowering for everyone.

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