We are back with a crisper, cleaner format! Did you miss us?
While tech has stuttered this year, the rally has broadened out into defensive sectors, energy, and industrials. International markets like the Nikkei and Kospi have been on fire, but the US remains in a cautious "wait and see" mode as uncertainties mount. Here’s what moved markets this week and more:
🚫 Supreme Court Axes Tariffs
🪖 US-Iran Tensions Brew
🐢 US GDP Growth Slows
🛒 Walmart Outlook Underwhelms
Read on below.
| US | WORLD | OTHERS | ||
S&P 500 +0.74% | Euro Stoxx 50 +4.80% | Bitcoin -22.70% | ||
Nasdaq 100 -0.77% | FTSE 100 +7.39% | Ethereum -34.41% | ||
Dow 30 +2.57% | Nikkei 225 +9.63% | Gold +17.66% | ||
Russell 2000 +6.20% | Hang Seng Index +0.28% | Silver +16.53% | ||
Mag 7 -4.21% | Nifty 50 -2.20% | Crude Oil +17.24% |
Percent changes are year-to-date (YTD)
⌛ Last Week’s Recap
A cocktail of geopolitical tensions, economic data, and earnings led to a volatile week of trading, ultimately seeing the S&P500 climb 1.20%. Tech stocks continue to look weak owing to CAPEX spending and AI-disruption concerns, as the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI challenge industry incumbents. While US markets remain in a cautious consolidation phase, international equities have largely shrugged off these fears to trend steadily higher.
Key Events
| • | Supreme Court Overturns Trump's Tariffs. Admin Counters Immediately Details: The court ruled the IEEPA-based tariffs illegal, affecting over 60% of tariff revenue collected so far. Trump responded with a 15% global baseline tariff over the weekend using alternative legal authorities Insight: Markets initially cheered the ruling with a sharp move higher, but the administration's immediate pivot suggests a messy, drawn-out legal saga to maintain current tariff levels in the months ahead |
| • | US Strikes On Iran Look Imminent Despite Talks Details: The US is weighing limited strikes on Iran amid a major naval buildup. While recent talks showed promise, a deal remains distant with a 15-day deadline looming Insight: Sharp moves up in oil, energy and defense stocks this year indicate markets are pricing in a conflict. However, an off-chance Trump looks to get a quick deal signed considering upcoming midterm elections could lead to a sharp rotation out of defense stocks into other sectors |
| • | Delayed PCE Report Highlights Sticky Inflation Details: The Personal Consumption Expenditure report (PCE) is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and showed a 3.0% YoY rise in December, above the Fed's 2% target Insight: With inflation remaining sticky at the 2.7-3.0% level and the labor market relatively stable, further rate cuts from the Fed in H1 2026 are looking increasingly improbable |
| • | US GDP Growth Slows Following 43-Day Government Shutdown Details: Economic growth decelerated to 1.4% from Q3’s 4.4% due to the shutdown’s impact. Despite the drag, the US economy grew 2.2% overall for 2025. Insight: The shutdown likely masked underlying consumer strength in Q4, and economists are forecasting a rebound in Q1 2026 |
| • | Cybersecurity Giant Palo Alto Networks Beats Earnings But Lowers Outlook Details: PANW reported $1.03 EPS for the quarter and 15% sales growth, beating estimates. However, its full-year EPS guidance of $3.65-3.70 fell short of analyst expectations Insight: Software and cybersecurity stocks have sold-off hard over the last few weeks amid disruption fears due to releases from Anthropic's Claude. AI will no doubt shake-up this sector, but now is a great opportunity to pick up long-term winners at discounts |
| • | Walmart Beats Earnings Estimates But Issues Cautious Guidance Details: Revenue rose 5.6% YoY to $190.7B. However, full-year guidance disappointed as the company noted tighter spending among lower-income demographics Insight: Walmart’s conservative outlook reflects a "choiceful" consumer base. Its focus on AI-driven shopping and high-income market share gains remains its primary defense |
| • | Booking Holdings Reports Robust Growth And 25-to-1 Stock Split Details: Revenue grew 16% YoY to $6.35B. The board approved a 25-to-1 stock split effective April Insight: Booking's earnings highlight that travel and leisure demand remains reslient despite concerns about the economy. Strong adoption of AI across its business is already contributing to margin expansion and platform optimization |
🗓️ The Week Ahead
All eyes will be on Nvidia’s earnings, with geopolitical tensions, tariff talk and economic data releases simmering in the backdrop. The S&P500 sits just above its 200-day moving average (a key technical indicator), and markets reacting to these events could send it either way.
| • | US-Iran Nuclear Talks And Strike Threats Date: - Details: Trump set a 15-day deadline for nuclear deal. Markets are monitoring potential limited strikes if no enrichment deal is agreed |
| • | Consumer Confidence Report (Feb) Date: Tues, 24-Feb Details: Gauges household sentiment on economic health. Reading over 100 indicates optimism and increased spending, while below 100 indicates pessimism. Estimates forecast 87.5 for Feb |
| • | US PPI Report (Jan) Date: Fri, 27-Feb Details: Tracks wholesale inflation. Estimates forecast 0.3% YoY increase, a slowdown from the previous month |
| • | Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings Date: Wed, 25-Feb Details: A crucial report for the AI narrative. Markets will be looking for a strong beat on revenue and earnings, plus a guidance raise, to continue believing that AI-infra spending is still robust. Updates on their Ruben rollout and China will also be closely watched |
| • | Salesforce (CRM) Earnings Date: Wed, 25-Feb Details: Salesforce is down 30% YTD, and must deliver strong earnings and guidance to dispel fears that enterprise and agentic AI disruptors like Claude are coming for their lunch money |
| • | Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) Earnings Date: Fri, 27-Feb Details: Their annual report will feature Greg Abel's first shareholder letter, and insights into their investment outlook, health of their businesses and deployment plans for their massive $380B+ cash pile |
| • | Canadian Large Bank Earnings Date: Tues, 24-Feb to Thurs, 26-Feb Details: Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada, and Toronto Dominion all report next week. Their earnings will offer a window into the health of the Canadian consumer and broader economy |
🎯 This Week’s Pick
Microsoft
| Market Cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.95T | 24.87 | 20.95 | -16.01% |
$MSFT Weekly Chart
Brief
Could Microsoft sell off further if trouble brews at OpenAI? Yes. Will the software slide continue on disruption fears from the likes of Claude? Possibly. Will Anthropic and other "disruptors" overthrow the Redmond king? Definitely not. Fear has gripped software behemoths lately, cratering MSFT ~30% from its All-Time High. Now trading at its lowest P/E in four years, Microsoft offers a rare, highly attractive entry point for those willing to look past the noise.
Fundamental Overview
Strong Top & Bottom Line Growth: Revenue and Net Income has grown at an 18% CAGR over the last 5 years
Strong Efficiency Metrics: Operating Margin of 47% and a 21.5% ROIC
Massive Cloud Scale: Azure is the backbone of the enterprise, recently hitting a $75B ARR
Strong AI Vertical Integration: Massive data center infra stack via Azure, plus deployment of Copilot across 365, and Github drivers higher per-user monetization
Capex Intensity: Record capital expenditures ($37B+ per quarter) for AI infra are pressuring near-term margins
OpenAI Concentration: 45% of its $625B backlog is tied to OpenAI, creating a partnership dependency
Technical Setup
Swift Post-Earnings Decline: MSFT has dropped sharply from its 50-day moving average of $483 since reporting earnings roughly a month ago
Oversold Conditions: It is now oversold (30 or lower reading) on both its daily and weekly RSI (Relative Strength Indicator)
Accumulation Zone: The $362–$395 range represents a high-conviction buy-zone. This corridor sandwiches the key 200-week moving average, offering an ideal floor to Dollar Cost Average (DCA) into a position
Patience Required: MSFT could take time to regain strength, particularly if there is a broader market sell-off. Buyers need to patient with this one
👋🏼 About The Author
Ali Husain
Ali is a full-time equity trader and investor based in Dubai, and the founder of First Mile Investing. He left his corporate career in 2024 to pursue his passion for the markets. He founded First Mile Investing to help beginners take their first confident steps into investing, with the goal of making the process less intimidating, more accessible, and empowering for everyone.
Get in touch
Know someone who might find this newsletter useful?
Or reach out to us at [email protected] if you have feedback.
Copyright Notice
All content, analysis, and visuals in Markets Weekly are the intellectual property of the author. Unauthorized copying, distribution, or reproduction of this newsletter, including its images, ideas, and research, is strictly prohibited without prior written consent.
Disclaimer
The weekly newsletters are not trade alerts or recommendations to buy or sell any securities. First Mile Investing is not a licensed financial advisor. The information shared is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. While risks can sometimes be managed, all investment decisions are your sole responsibility. Always conduct your own research before making any financial decisions. We are simply sharing opinions and educational material with no guarantee of profits or protection from losses.