It’s been an unprecedented weekend. If you are a UAE resident like myself, I hope you and your family are safe and sound. A sincere thank you to the Ministry of Defense for their tireless work protecting us!
Global markets are now bracing as the US-Iran war overshadows everything else. This week will be a pivotal test for global trade and energy as the conflict intensifies. Here’s what moved markets last week, and read on to see what’s in store ahead.
🚢 Strait Of Hormuz Transit Halts
🛢️ Oil Futures Spike 5%
💸 Nvidia Crushes Earnings But Slides
📺 Netflix Drops Warner Deal
🪓 Block Slashes Workforce
🤖 AMD Lands Meta Deal
| US | WORLD | OTHERS | ||
S&P 500 +0.30% | Euro Stoxx 50 +4.92% | Bitcoin -24.01% | ||
Nasdaq 100 -0.98% | FTSE 100 +9.64% | Ethereum -33.24% | ||
Dow 30 +1.23% | Nikkei 225 +13.54% | Gold +21.46% | ||
Russell 2000 +4.95% | Hang Seng Index +1.11% | Silver +29.26% | ||
Mag 7 -6.12% | Nifty 50 -3.70% | Crude Oil +18.84% |
Percent changes are year-to-date (YTD)
⌛ Last Week’s Recap
Key Events
| • | US And Israel Launch Military Strikes Against Iran. Iran Responds With Attacks Across The Gulf States Details: Supreme Leader Khamenei has reportedly been killed, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Gulf states are at a maximum high-alert status in preparation for further retaliatory attacks from Iran. Insight: Oil, precious metals, defense stocks and energy stocks have already surged 20% or more in the build-up to these events. Avoid chasing them at these elevated prices as any sign of a de-escalation or pause could trigger a sell-off. Wait for the dust to settle to buy quality names at a discount. |
| • | US Producer Price Inflation Rises In January Details: PPI, which measures the changes in prices received by domestic producers, rose 0.5% in Jan, well above estimates. Insight: Firmer wholesale inflation, which will be exacerbated further in the coming months due to spikes in energy prices, gives the Fed more reason to pause on further rate easing. |
| • | Nvidia Declines Despite Blowout Earnings Details: Revenue hit $68B for the quarter, up 73% YoY. Gross margin came in at 75%, above estimates. NVDA also provided strong guidance of $78B for the quarter ahead. However, it closed the week 7% lower. Insight: Customer concentration among the hyperscalers (50%+ of NVDA's revenue), competition, massive inventory build-ups ahead, and concerns over circular financing (largely with the openAI deal), have investors wary, and scrutinizing the velocity and scale of the AI infra build-out. |
| • | Salesforce Reports Strong Earnings, Raises Revenue Outlook Details: Revenue of $11.2B and earnings of $3.81 per share came in well above estimates. Salesforce upped its fiscal 2030 target to $63B, driven by strong growth for agentic AI. Insight: Salesforce's agentic AI platform, Agentforce, is a strong proof-of-concept for monetizing AI tools into existing enterprise workflows. Peers like ServiceNow, Oracle and Microsoft will have to showcase similar developments to quell disruption fears in the months ahead. |
| • | Fintech Block Slashes Workforce By Half, Rekindles Fears Over SAAS Stocks Details: CEO Jack Dorsey announced job cuts of 4K, bringing headcount down to 6K, despite earnings growing 38% YoY. He cited sizing down to smaller teams due to AI tools and that other firms will soon follow. Insight: SaaS stocks sold off as layoffs threaten "seat-based" revenue models for giants like Salesforce, Workday, and Atlassian. |
| • | Netflix Walks Away From Warner Bros Deal After Declining To Match Paramount Bid Details: Netflix declined to match the raised $31/share bid from Paramount Skydance for WBD, citing an unattractive price. Netflix shares jumped and closed the week up 22%, after a brutal sell-off in recent months. Insight: Netflix will receive a breakup fee of $2.8B from WBD. Investors are upbeat about the deal falling through as it avoids a significant hit to their balance sheet, and frees up capital for NFLX to deploy into their propreitary content and growth. |
| • | Amazon To Invest $50B In OpenAI Details: Amazon announced a $50B investment in OpenAI, becoming the exclusive cloud provider for "OpenAI Frontier." This is part of OpenAI’s record-breaking $110B funding round. Insight: This is a calculated move to hedge bets between Anthropic and OpenAI. By securing exclusive cloud and Trainium chip deals, Amazon is ensuring that no matter who wins the model race, AWS infra remains a key part of the industry's backbone. |
| • | IBM Shares Plunge As Anthropic Tool Threatens Mainframe Business Details: IBM saw its worst single-day drop in 25 years (-13%) after Anthropic’s "Claude Code" automated the modernization of COBOL, a 60-year-old programming language that still powers the majority of global ATM and credit card transactions. Insight: An overreaction from the market. Migrating legacy financial systems is a risk and security challenge, not just a coding one. Mainframe clients choose IBM for reliability and quantum-safe encryption, not just code syntax. |
| • | AMD Secures Massive $60B GPU Deal With Meta Details: Meta will purchase 6GW of AI compute capacity from AMD over 5 years. The deal includes performance-based warrants for Meta to acquire up to 10% of AMD’s equity. Insight: While this validates AMD’s hardware, closing a chip deal with 10% of your own company shows AMD still lacks Nvidia’s total pricing power, and is earning its way into the hyperscaler club. |
🗓️ The Week Ahead
| • | US/Israel-Iran War Date: Ongoing Details: An ongoing and rapidly developing situation, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption in focus. Markets are closely watching oil prices, precious metals, and defense stocks for volatility. It's important not to panic and make impulsive moves to your portfolios. |
| • | ADP Employment Report (Feb) Date: Wed, 04-Mar Details: Changes in private payroll data that will indicate if a low-hiring environment is still persisting. |
| • | US Jobs Report (Feb) Date: Fri, 06-Mar Details: The all important jobs report that will tell us the net non-farm payrolls added in Feb. Estimates forecast 54K jobs to be added, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%. |
| • | Major Retailer Earnings (Costco, Target, Best Buy, Kroger, Macy's) Date: Tues, 03-Mar to Fri, 06-Mar Details: A key window into US consumer health, discretionary vs. staple spending, and the impact of tariffs. |
| • | Crowdstrike (CRWD) Earnings Date: Tues, 03-Mar Details: A leading cybersecurity provider. Investors are watching for strong subscription growth to prove that protecting data remains an essential expense for global corporations. |
| • | Broadcom (AVGO) Earnings Date: Wed, 04-Mar Details: A vital player in AI infra race. The market is focused on demand and outlook for their custom AI chips and the stability of their VMware software business. |
🎯 This Week’s Pick
Cigna
| Market Cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ 76.38B | 13.06 | 8.67 | +5.30% |
$CI Daily Chart
Brief
Cigna is a global health insurer and managed pharmacy services provider to millions worldwide. While peers like United Health and CVS are struggling with federal Medicare reimbursement cuts, Cigna has strategically exited that space. It is now doubling down on high-margin pharmacy services (Evernorth) and stable employer-sponsored plans. This pivot shields it from Washington’s regulatory storms, leaving a leaner, more profitable powerhouse trading at a deep discount.
Fundamental Overview
Defensive Play: Managed care stocks are defensive plays, offering stability and reliable cash flow during broader market uncertainty
Medicare De-Risking: Divested its Medicare Advantage arm, removing exposure to volatile federal funding rates
Evernorth Dominance: Its pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) and specialty pharmacy now drive ~70% of earnings
Commercial Stability: Focuses on employer-sponsored plans, which offer more predictable margins than government programs
Cash Flow King: Targeting $9B+ in 2026 cash flow with aggressive $7B+ share buyback capacity
Capital Efficiency: Delivers a superior 15%+ ROE, consistently outperforming peers in margin discipline
Valuation Gap: Trades at ~9x Forward P/E, a significant discount compared to its historical average
Technical Setup
Bullish Crossover: CI’s 21-day moving average has recently crossed over its 50 and 120-day moving averages, signaling a bullish trend forming
Close Above Key Resistance: CI recently closed over 289, a major resistance level and also its 200-day moving average
Price Targets: A continuation of this move could see it hit its next key resistance level of 308 (+6.5%), and 320 (+11%) beyond that
Pullback Risks: If sector-wide weakness persists, CI could see a sharp retracement to its major structural support level at 268
👋🏼 About The Author
Ali Husain
Ali is a full-time equity trader and investor based in Dubai, and the founder of First Mile Investing. He left his corporate career in 2024 to pursue his passion for the markets. He founded First Mile Investing to help beginners take their first confident steps into investing, with the goal of making the process less intimidating, more accessible, and empowering for everyone.
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